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Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by Polycyclic Aromatic

XIA Tianxiang,JIANG Lin,JIA Xiaoyang,ZHONG Maosheng,LIANG Jing

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年第8卷第3期页码 441-450 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0572-6

摘要： Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Deterministic Risk Assessment (DRA) at a coking plant site was compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient (HQ) following exposure to Naphthalene (Nap) and Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) following exposure to Benzo(a)pyrene (Bap) were 1.87 and 2.12 × 10 . PRA revealed valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and risk estimates of DRA located at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, which indicated that DRA overestimated the risk. Cleanup levels corresponding acceptable HQ level of 1 and ILCR level of 10 were also calculated for both DRA and PRA. Nap and Bap cleanup levels were 192.85 and 0.14 mg·kg by DRA, which would result in only 0.25% and 0.06% of the exposed population to have a risk higher than the acceptable risk, according to the outputs of PRA. The application of PRA on cleanup levels derivation would lift the cleanup levels 1.9 times for Nap and 2.4 times for Bap than which derived by DRA. For this coking plant site, the remediation scale and cost will be reduced in a large portion once the method of PRA is used. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating the contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it was found that contaminant concentration in the soil ( ), exposure duration ( ), total hours spent outdoor per day ( ), soil ingestion rate ( ), the air breathing rate ( ) and bodyweight ( ) were the most important parameters for risk and cleanup levels calculations.

关键词： Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) a coking plant risk cleanup level sensitivity analysis polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

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Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams

Narjes SOLTANI, Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI, Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第5期页码 1007-1019 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0521-y

摘要： The probabilistic risk of arch dam failure under thermal loading is studied. The incorporated uncertainties, which are defined as random variables, are associated with the most affecting structural (material) properties of concrete and thermal loading conditions. Karaj arch dam is selected as case study. The dam is numerically modeled along with its foundation in three-dimensional space; the temperature and thermal stress distribution is investigated during the operating phase. The deterministic thermal finite element analysis of the dam is combined with the structural reliability methods in order to obtain thermal response predictions, and estimate the probability of failure in the risk analysis context. The tensile overstressing failure mode is considered for the reliability analysis. The thermal loading includes ambient air and reservoir temperature variations. The effect of solar radiation is considered by an increase in the ambient temperatures. Three reliability methods are employed: the first-order second-moment method, the first-order reliability method, and the Monte-Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling. The estimated failure probabilities are discussed and the sensitivity of random variables is investigated. Although most of the studies in this line of research are used only for academic purposes, the results of this investigation can be used for both academic and engineering purposes.

关键词： arch dams probabilistic analysis thermal stress sensitivity reliability

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Proposal of a probabilistic assessment of structural collapse concomitantly subject to earthquake and

Gholamreza ABDOLLAHZADEH, Hadi FAGHIHMALEKI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第3期页码 425-437 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0427-5

摘要：

In recent decades, many public buildings, located in seismic-prone residential areas, had to grapple with abnormal loads against which the structures were unguarded. In this piece of research, an ordinary three dimensional reinforced concrete building is selected as case study. The building is located in an earthquake-prone region; however, it is designed according to seismic building codes. Yet, it is not shielded against abnormal loads, such as blasts. It is assumed that the building suffers a blast load, due to mechanical/thermal installation failure during or after intense seismic oscillations. These two critical incidents are regarded codependent and compatible. So the researchers developed scenarios and tried to assess different probabilities for each scenario and carried out an analysis to ensure if progressive collapse had set in or not. In the first step, two analysis models were used for each scenario; a non-linear dynamic time history analysis and a blast local dynamic analysis. In the second step, having the structural destructions of the first step in view, a pushdown analysis was carried out to determine the severity of progressive collapse and assess building robustness. Finally, the annual probability of structural collapse under simultaneous earthquake and blast loads was estimated and offered.

关键词： gas blast pushdown analysis progressive collapse annual probability of structural collapse 3D model of structure

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Fate and risk assessment of emerging contaminants in reclaimed water production processes

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第5期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-021-1392-8

摘要：

• PPCPs had the highest removal efficiency in A²O combined with MBR process (86.8%).

关键词： Trace organic pollution Antibiotic resistance genes Reclaimed wastewater Sludge Risk assessment Mass load

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Human health ambient water quality criteria for 13 heavy metals and health risk assessment in Taihu Lake

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第4期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-021-1475-6

摘要：

• The concentrations of 13 heavy metals in Taihu Lake were analyzed.

关键词： Heavy metals Human health ambient water quality criteria Taihu Lake Health risk assessment Contribution rate

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Distribution, enrichment mechanism and risk assessment for fluoride in groundwater: a case study of Mihe-Weihe

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第6期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1670-8

摘要：

● High fluorine is mainly HCO₃·Cl-Na and HCO₃-Na type.

关键词： Groundwater in the Mihe-Weihe River Basin Distribution characteristics of fluorine Factors influencing fluoride Enrichment mechanism of fluorine Hydrogeochemical modeling Pollution and risk assessment

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Multimedia distribution and health risk assessment of typical organic pollutants in a retired industrial

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第11期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1742-9

摘要：

● A fine portrayal of organic pollutants in a retired industrial park is provided.

关键词： Organic pollutants Retired industrial park Spatial correlation Health risk assessment

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系统工程风险评估方法的研究进展

曹云,徐卫亚

《中国工程科学》 2005年第7卷第6期页码 88-94

摘要：

详细介绍了系统工程风险评估方法及其应用的现状和进展，对各种方法的适用范围及优缺点作了说明，讨论了风险评估方法研究中的几个技术问题，指出目前风险评估方法要解决的问题和今后的研究方向。

关键词：风险评估风险分析系统工程

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Occurrence and health risk assessment of trace heavy metals via groundwater in Shizhuyuan Polymetallic

Bingbing XU,Qiujin XU,Cunzhen LIANG,Li LI,Lijia JIANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第3期页码 482-493 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0675-8

摘要： The Shizhuyuan Polymetallic Mine in Chen-zhou City is an important multi-metal deposit in China. After a dam accident in 1985, there are still a number of mining plants, smelters and tailing ponds in this area. These had the potential to pollute the surrounding groundwater. In this study, groundwater samples were collected from 20 residents’ wells in this area during both dry and wet seasons. In particular, this study focused on the exposure and the health risk assessment of trace heavy metal in groundwater. Multiple statistical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive method were employed to reveal the distribution characteristics of heavy metal and to assess the groundwater quality. Results indicated that Cr, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Ba, Hg and Pb were widespread with low exposure levels. There were 19 wells with low level exposure and one well with a moderate level exposure in the dry season. All of the wells were in low level exposure during the wet season. As and Mn exhibited potential non-carcinogenic concern, because their maximum hazard quotient (HQ) was higher than 1.0. This may cause adverse health effect on adults in dry season or on children in both seasons. Only As, showed that the maximum carcinogenic risk was more than 10 , suggesting a high cancer risk for children in both dry and wet seasons. Therefore, analysis and reduction the concentrations of As and Mn in groundwater are needed in order to protect the health of residents and especially children in the area.

关键词： groundwater heavy metal health risk assessment mine area

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Probabilistic safety assessment of self-centering steel braced frame

Navid RAHGOZAR, Nima RAHGOZAR, Abdolreza S. MOGHADAM

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第1期页码 163-182 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0384-z

摘要： The main drawback of conventional braced frames is implicitly accepting structural damage under the design earthquake load, which leads to considerable economic losses. Controlled rocking self-centering system as a modern low-damage system is capable of minimizing the drawbacks of conventional braced frames. This paper quantifies main limit states and investigates the seismic performance of self-centering braced frame using a Probabilistic Safety Assessment procedure. Margin of safety, confidence level, and mean annual frequency of the self-centering archetypes for their main limit states, including PT yield, fuse fracture, and global collapse, are established and are compared with their acceptance criteria. Considering incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the efficiency of the system is examined. Results of the investigation indicate that the design of low- and mid-rise self-centering archetypes could provide the adequate margin of safety against exceeding the undesirable limit-states.

关键词： self-centering steel braced frame mean annual frequency safety assessment confidence level margin of safety

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过程操作性能的在线评估与诊断

Sedghi Shabnam,Huang Biao

《工程（英文）》 2017年第3卷第2期页码 214-219 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.02.004

摘要：此外，稳态模态的多模态特性由混合概率主成分回归方法(mixture probabilistic principal component regression，MPPCR) 处理；动态主成分回归方法(dynamic

关键词：最优性能评估概率主成分回归多模态过程

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Integrated risk assessment framework for transformation products of emerging contaminants: what we know

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1691-3

摘要：

● A better risk assessment can combine the improved non-target analysis method.

关键词： Risk assessment frameworks Transformation products Emerging contaminants High-throughput toxicity screening Water treatment

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Aerosol exposure assessment during reclaimed water utilization in China and risk evaluation in case of

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-021-1516-1

摘要：

• The Chinese population exposure habits were surveyed.

关键词： Legionella QMRA Reclaimed water Aerosol Water reuse

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渤海湾海底隧道运营风险评估分析

王永红,刘兵,张永刚

《中国工程科学》 2013年第15卷第12期页码 107-112

摘要：

特长海底隧道运营是一个极其复杂的系统工程，存在较大的不确定性和安全风险。根据隧道工程运营期风险评估的一般流程，对渤海湾海底隧道工程在其运营期的风险进行了评估。评估中考虑的主要风险因素有水害、衬砌裂损、冻害、衬砌腐蚀、震害、洞内空气污染、火灾和列车脱轨事故8 种类型。综合运用信心指数法和层次分析法，参照隧道与地下工程风险接受准则和风险等级标准，对渤海湾海底隧道运营期间的风险进行估计与评价。给出了该海底隧道运营期的风险等级，并讨论了本评估工作中尚存在的一些问题和今后有待深入的工作。

关键词：海底隧道运营期风险分析风险评估